Understand the Difference Between Pace and Speed to Successfully Handicap Horse Races

The old saying, "Pace makes the race," can easily be offset with, "The fastest horse doesn't always win the race, but that's how you have to play them."

At face value, they seem to be saying the same thing, but that isn't necessarily true. In a perfect world where each runner got to run its own style of race at its own pace, the fastest horse would always win, but as anyone who has suffered through the ups and downs of horseracing can tell you, the world of horse racing is not perfect.

The problem is that the horses are racing against each other and not the clock. Trying to determine how a horse will handle the other horses and the pace they set in a race is a very big part of handicapping horse races. For instance, you may like the chances of a runner in a race who is known for laying off the pace a few lengths and then making a late run at the leader. This horse wins many races by running down a tiring front runner or two. But in today's race, there is no clear front runner and not much early speed.

The gate opens and the horses practically walk out of the gate. At what seems a snail's pace they set slow fractions in the early stages of the race, and yet, because of its favored running style, your pick is still laying off the pace. The two horses on the lead have been lazily loping along, they are also horses that have some late foot, but because of the slow pace, the jockeys have placed them in front. As they enter the home stretch, instead of tiring as front runners usually do, these two put up a furious run for the wire battling each other all the way.

Your pick tries to mount a challenge but must make up several lengths against two strong runners who have dictated the pace. He just can't make up the ground and loses at the wire. The problem was, the pace was too slow and he didn't get to use his late energy on a tiring horse.

The opposite situation can also occur when a horse that prefers to run a few lengths off the front runners chases extremely fast front runners who run out of energy at the end of the race. Even though this horse may be able to run the distance in fastest time if he gets to run his own race, he is spending too much precious energy at the beginning of the race. He may pass them, but because he expended so much energy he cannot complete the race in his usual time.

What this all amounts to is figuring out which horses have the most ability and will be able to use it. Look for situations where a horse will not be able to run its own race and may be a victim of pace. The fastest horse may be the favorite, but the horse that fits the pace scenario of the race and style that wins at that distance and under those conditions (track model) the best, will have the advantage. Finding an advantage that is underbet is what successful handicapping is all about.


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