Thursday, January 8, 2009

Be Prepared For the Ups and Downs of Horse Racing Handicapping

One of the funniest comments I ever saw in a horse's running lines was, "Stepped on goose." I wish I could remember which horse and race it was, but it escapes me at the moment. I have seen some strange things while watching races, though, and stepping on a goose is just one of many things that can happen to a runner.

Mishaps also happen to jockeys. I have seen a few fall off when they were just cruising along. One fell off in the stretch and I often wonder if he "fell" or jumped off because the horse was going to win. I hope I won't sound too cynical when I say that I suspect the horse was not meant to win by the connections or other betting interests and the rider was under orders to fail or else.

When his mount was such an overlay compared to the others, it easily scampered to the lead and opened up such a wide margin there was no way for him to pull it back, so he did the next best thing. The horse may have crossed the finish line first, but without the rider, it was not declared the winner. For the price of a few bruises and a scolding or fine from the stewards, the jockey may have preserved a lot more or even gained. But like I said, maybe I'm just being cynical.

On the other hand, a little cynicism can be healthy when wagering on the ponies. There have been a few times when I have said, "Gee, I never heard of that jockey before." On more than one of those occasions, the unknown rider won. I didn't forget his or her name after that. When a jockey shows up out of no where at a track and gets a decent mount, don't discount it just because you don't know who the jockey is or what he or she can do.

I've seen horses veer sharply, jump shadows, run up on other horses, jump the rail and do a number of crazy and dangerous things. My experiences with them has been that they are big, strong, and unpredictable. Therefore you must be prepared for anything in a race.

Just how do you prepare for the unexpected? The first rule is, "Don't bet all your money on one race." No matter how good a horse may look when compared to the rest of the field, things can happen and often do.

The next rule is to take things in stride and be philosophical if at all possible. If your horse falls down or suffers some other mishap, it didn't happen just because you bet on it. The animal may have suffered from the fall and so may the jockey. On top of that, many other people bet on it as well so they lost, too. Fate didn't punish all those people and the poor animal just to take your money.

Only risk what you can afford to lose and keep a sense of humor. Remember, there's always fresh (tomorrow).


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