Friday, October 31, 2008

2008 Melbourne Cup Preview

Aiden O'Brien will have a smile on his face this week after learning that his Irish St Leger winner, Septimus, will not be penalised by Victorias Chief handicapper for his huge 13 length win at the weekend. This means that O'Brien will have more motivation to run the horse in the much prized, Melbourne Cup in November, a race known to be among O'Briens targets this year. The Australian handicappers believes that his opposition in the St Leger were far too inferior for Septimus to be penalised.

Cynics are already suggesting that the gesture is an unfair incentive to ensure that O'Brien brings his horses to Melbourne for the race. The Ballydoyle maestro has six of his horses entered for the race and ideally O'Brien would like to run them all.

For most race enthusiasts, Septimus was highly impressive in the Irish St Leger and the manner of his win suggested that he is every bit a Melbourne Cup type. However it is worthy of note that second horse, New Zealand, had only just broke his maiden in his previous race and had been well beaten in his two previous starts to that. The third horse home, Red Moloney was thrashed in her previous outing and had never won a Group race. It is clear therefore why Septimus has received no penalty, but it also indicates that Septimus may not be the horse, many think he is.

One of O'Brien's other entrants, Honolulu, was an equally impressive winner of the Group 2, Doncaster Cup recently and he has been penalised by 1kg for his victory, should he participate in the race. Some feel that if Septimus was not penalised for a Group 1 success, then why should Honolulu be penalised for a Group 2. That said, Honolulu is one of those horses who seems to improve with age and he could be the O'Brien first choice of the six he has currently declared.

Despite the 'will he wont he' run aspect to the race, Septimus has had his odds in the Melbourne Cup betting shortened and is now the clear favourite and Australian bookmakers report several big bets made on him since his win at the weekend. They have also predicted that there will be a flood of money going on him from both the Northern and Southern hemispheres in the weeks leading up to the race on November 4th.



Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=James_R_Smith

Betting Systems - Why Betting Exchanges Have Raised the Bar

One of the most revolutionary changes that the advent of the internet has produced, is the introduction of new and sophisticated online betting systems, where the 'traditional' bookmaker is no longer king.

The new 'breed' of betting systems is called a betting exchange and the way that these exchanges operate, means that as a punter the odds are more stacked in our favour, which is of course no bad thing.

Betting exchanges such as Betfair enable punters to place bets against each other in support of which horse they believe will win or lose a particular race. If one person believes that a particular horse will win a race; they will back that horse and offer a wager price. If someone else believes that the horse will lose the race, and they like the odds that are offered, they will lay it. At that point, the bet is matched.

Players Control The Odds, Not The Bookmakers

According to Betfair, during peak hours they've matched over 12,000 bets per minute. This represents a significant marketplace that will see very large sums of money changing hands every day. On betting exchanges such as Betfair, the players themselves are in complete control of the odds and the prices - not the bookmakers.

As far as comparing it to the betting systems of yesteryear, it is about as far removed as you could get.

First of all, as there are no bookmakers, there are no longer any hefty margins either. With a betting exchange, a punter always wins, not a bookmaker. Odds are never manipulated to protect profit margin and the only cost for using the system is a low commission that is applied to net winnings. Such betting exchanges typically offer punters much higher odds than traditional bookmakers, and that's why I always recommend comparing their odds against that of the high street bookie.

How Does This System Work?

Maybe the most unique and attractive aspect to betting exchanges is the fact that its the punters who get to choose the odds, not the bookie. Players can enjoy the flexibility of offering their own odds within a betting system that gives the punter almost complete control and the ability to dictate a certain event on their own terms.

Once this has been done, its then down to other interested punters to actually provide a counter-offer to these odds. If the originally player who placed the bet likes your counter-offer - they accept and the bet is matched. Either way, one player or another is going to win and make money.

Why The Punter Always Wins

This approach to betting of course means that a punter always wins. This represents extremely high liquidity across a huge range of markets, and many betting exchanges attract both very high-rollers and small-time punters as well, with small minimum bets available to cater for the latter.

From my own experience, I have found the arena of betting exchanges quite exciting and it's very hard to beat the pure excitement of what Betfair calls an "in-play". In-play betting allows players to use their own analysis to try to predict results of an event even after the event has begun. This means that even right into the middle of any event, two people can immediately place a bet regarding the outcome of that event.

The excitement of such a betting system is that two players can pit their wits against each other regarding their ability to do real-time analysis in predicting what they believe will be the outcome. This represents high-energy, fast moving action where the odds change by the second.

In fact, Betfair and their betting exchange counterparts have presented the public with a new and innovative approach to placing bets, that of course removes the middleman; otherwise know as the bookmaker.

Which Came First?

Most people would think that the bookmaker is the image of traditional betting, well maybe not. Betting exchanges offer people a method to directly place bets against each other, very much like nobility used to do during the earliest days of one-on-one thoroughbred racing, so maybe it is the exchange that is closer to tradition?

Whatever your thoughts or beliefs, exchanges have forced the bookmaker to look at its business model, and in time this will benefit one set of important individuals, the ones who provide the money, the punter.



Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Cliff_Thurston

Bank Vault Report Review - What the Sales Page Doesnt Tell You!

In this "Bank vault report review" I intend to outline the ins and outs of the Bank vault report system. The system is based on what John Dee refers to as him lay ladder. What this means is that unlike the normal keep betting till you get a loser, the Bank vault report does the opposite. You keep betting until you get a winner. John says that he developed the system after his own personal experience of betting for years and like most people I know he also found it easier to pick losers than winners. After buying this report I must say i was really impressed firstly by the easy PDF format. The report is professionally written and makes it easy to read.

Unlike most betting systems that start with the usual stuff about how to place a bet, the bank vault report gets straight into it which means that you can get to winning money straight away. Like all lay betting systems the bank vault report uses Betfair although you can use any betting exchange. To be honest I think Betfair is the best exchange anyway. This system is really worth the money. Since starting 10 months ago I have made just over £7000 and i only started with a bank of £100. This system really works. The annoying thing is its not rocket science, its simple stuff and I just wish I had figured it out my self and saved my self some money!

However John Dee really is providing a great service here and I'm glad I invested the small amount as I made the money back within the first 4 days. The potential to win money is also now greater than ever since the introduction of the bank vault report version 4! This now includes foreign betting as well so you can earn even more. In conclusion I would rate this system 4/5 hence I've rated it number 2 in my top 5 lay betting systems. The Bank vault report is very good value for money and I would advise anyone to take advantage of the system.



Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=John_Bead

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Keeneland - Racing and Sales

Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky is known throughout the horse industry, even in the stock horse industry, for two things: their racing and their sales. This racing and sales complex has seen millions of Thoroughbreds come through its gates rather to race or to be the next up and coming star in the racing industry to be sold for millions of dollars.

Keeneland was founded in 1953 as a nonprofit racing and auction facility on 147 acres of farmland. The land had been owned by Jack Keene. The organization used the proceeds from races and its auctions to further the Thoroughbred industry and contribute to the surrounding community.

Keeneland Race Course operates live race meets April through October and has since 1936. They added a turf course to the facility in 1985. The spring meets at Keeneland are popular for their ability to prepare young horses for the big races, such as the Kentucky Derby. The most notable prep race is the Blue Grass Stakes. The fall meet also features many prep races for the Breeders' Cup.

Many horseracing fans were able to get a glimpse of the track in the 2003 movie Seabiscuit. Several scenes were shot at the course because the course has changed little in appearance over the past several decades. The track takes pride in keeping many of the old racing traditions; in fact they didn't even broadcast over a public-address system until 1997. However, as of late, the track has seen many new technological renovations including the replacement of the 1 1/16 mile dirt track with a Polytrack synthetic surface.

On the other side of Keeneland is the sales operation. There are four annual sales that take place at Keeneland and these sales attract buyers from all over the world. The first sale takes place in January and is for horses of all ages. The sale also features breeding "seasons" where the rights to breed one mare to a stallion in a given year are sold at auction. In April, two year olds in training are sold. This was added in 1993 as many owners wanted to buy horses that were already started in their training.

In July, selected yearling sales are head. This sale has been held since 1943 and is the most prestigious sale in the world. Eleven Kentucky Derby winners have passed through the sale ring. These yearlings that are sold here are selected by pedigree and have to pass a physical conformation test. However, this sale has been canceled annually since 2003.

The next popular sale is the September Yearling Sale. This is the world's largest sale of yearlings. These yearlings do not have to meet any pedigree or conformation requirements. This sale has produced a Kentucky Derby winner, a US Horse of the Year winner and an Epsom Derby winner.

The final sale of the year is the November Breeding Stock Sale. This sale features all horses capable of breeding, except yearlings. Stallion shares and breeding rights are also sold at this sale and the sale has become the world's largest Thoroughbred sale.

Simon M Skinner is an online marketer for BetAmerica.com. they are the leading online racing and games destination in the United States offering racing, and unique and exciting contests and competitions for its customers. With industry leading software and wagering on over 80 Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse and Harness tracks from across North America, BetAmerica.com is licensed and regulated by the North Dakota Racing Commission.



Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Simon_M_Skinner

Winning Betting Systems Review!

Winning Betting Systems

Winning betting systems are few and far between, so before I start talking about the winning betting systems that I use. I firstly want to give you an insight into myself. For the past 5 years I have been betting online, however I have not been successful up until the past 10 months. The reason for this is what drives me to writing this article. I have tried betting in many sports but I mainly use football and horse racing now since I have always had more knowledge of these sports. To this date I've never lost a lot of money betting since I always bet within my means. On the other side though, up until the last 10 months I've never made a lot of money either. Thankfully though due to the winning betting systems that I now use this has changed.

I now bet enough that I can make a full time income and soon I plan to do this full time instead of my current job. I have a personal aim to be a millionaire within the next two years, this is very easily attainable if I stick to what I have been doing and continually increase my bets gradually and re-invest the money I win instead of going and spending it. What I plan to do is continue working to support my self as I have been doing and not use any of my profits until I have a betting bank of £200000. By this point I will be betting such high amounts that I will achieve my goal easily! I can't wait.

OK so by now you are probably quite curious to how I make so much money successfully by betting? Well just to put you in the picture since I started using winning betting system I have made a profit of approximately £16000. Now firstly I would like to clear something up. If you are looking at that number and saying so what, then you should probably not bother betting because you have read into all the nonsense that sales pages put forward about how they made £16000 per month. This is rubbish. Those kinds of stats are not realistic unless you are betting huge amounts of money. What I am trying to do here is advise people through my own experience on winning betting systems that you can start with a reasonable budget. I don't claim to be rich so personally £100 to me is a lot of money to start of with. When I started I was only using small stakes like £10 to get used to the whole process and the first month I made £700! This to me was huge because its tax free money!



Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=John_Bead

Monday, October 20, 2008

Shorter Prices Can Mean Greater Value - Part 2

Last week we discussed the favourite/longshot bias which shows that the rate of return decreases as price increases. That is, punters tend to under-rate the winning chances of favourites and over-rate the winning chances of longer priced horses.

To demonstrate this is more than just a theory, today we'll take a look at the profitability of backing leading jockey's, trainers and sires.

Firstly let's take a look at leading Victorian jockey Brad Rawiller. Over the last five years if you were to back all of his mounts you would have lost around 8% on turnover (at TAB prices). But when we take a closer look at his figures, a typical favourite/longshot bias clearly emerges.

Brad Rawiller
Price range Profitability
Under $2.50 0% profit on turnover
$2.60 to $8 -3% POT
$8.10 to $16 -15% POT
$16.01 and over -45% POT

Now we'll look at Craig Newitt, runner-up in the jockey's premiership.
Price range Profitability
Under $2.50 -7% profit on turnover
$2.60 to $8 -17% POT
$8.10 to $16 -48% POT
$16.01 and over -60% POT

OK let's analyse the two leading trainers to see if the favourite/longshot bias also exists there.

Lee Freedman
Price range Profitability
Under $2.50 -2% profit on turnover
$2.60 to $8 -14% POT
$8.10 to $16 -32% POT
$16.01 and over -47% POT

David Hayes
Price range Profitability
Under $2.50 -20% profit on turnover
$2.60 to $8 -30% POT
$8.10 to $16 -28% POT
$16.01 and over -45% POT

And if you needed further proof, let's consider the results if you were to follow our two leading sires:
Encosta De Lago
Price range Profitability
Under $2.50 -13% profit on turnover
$2.60 to $8 -24% POT
$8.10 to $16 -29% POT
$16.01 and over -43% POT
Price range Profitability
Under $2.50 -10% profit on turnover
$2.60 to $8 -22% POT
$8.10 to $16 -28% POT
$16.01 and over -43% POT

So in every example above, whether it was a jockey, trainer or sire, there was a clear demonstration that the rate of return decreases as price increases.

As a punter you should ask yourself does this bias also apply to your own betting? I would be almost certain that it does, and with reasonable record-keeping you can answer that question definitively.

The favourite/longshot bias has existed for many years in racing, sports betting and financial markets and is unlikely to disappear any time soon. So use it to your advantage by focusing on shorter priced horses and your results should improve immediately.

Breeding Exposed

Why are yearling buyers fixated with purchasing the progeny of sires (eg Redoubte's Choice, Encosta De Lago) renowned predominantly for producing sprinters? They may be doing themselves a disservice, as I will attempt to illustrate in this article.

Top-end players in our racing and breeding industry have had the blinkers on for some time, and as a result, our thoroughbreds are unable to compete on the international stage in some of the global classics. This fixation with winning races such as the Golden Slipper, Blue Diamond and Magic Millions, I think has been detrimental to our industry and this is becoming increasingly apparent.

Considering that the majority of prize-money is kept for the classic and staying races, it doesn't make sense that so much time is spent in breeding sprinters that only race for a few seasons. Stayers can race on until seven or eight years of age at a high level. Obviously the stakes on offer for winning the 2yo Group Ones (and the restricted races such as Magic Millions and Inglis Classic) make a very good selling-point in catalogues and in the sales-ring especially when the adrenalin is rushing and common-sense may have gone out the window. The problem is further exacerbated, when a number of 2yo's with some black-type against their name, are retired to stud, in some cases, not even making it onto the track as a 3yo. This seems all the more short-sighted when you consider that the recently retired Sadler's Wells has been the most successful sire in the world over the past fifteen years and he was a sire of stayers.

Until Australian thoroughbreds can compete in, and win, such staying classics as the Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe, Breeders Cup, Japan Cup and Dubai World Cup, we cannot expect to be taken seriously at a global level. We are no longer producing horses that can be competitive in such events, blind Freddy can see the problem revolves around the fact that we are not breeding horses with the required stamina and resolve to win these high quality staying contests.

When you consider that the Golden Slipper is the only sprint race in Australia less than 1600m in distance that is worth over One Million Dollars, you wonder why we persist with the fixation of breeding for just speed.

On my site you will see an outline of our major races, what they are worth and which sires provided these winners over the past 12 months.

You will note that with exception of the Doncaster Hcp and Railway Stakes, (which is generally accepted that you need a good 2000m horse to win those events) they are all staying events. I reiterate there is only one race over a sprinting distance under a mile where prize-money exceeds 1million dollars, that is the Golden Slipper ($3.5mil). After that, compared to the stayers, the sprinters are racing for peanuts.

This years Easter Yearling Sales produced 25 yearlings that were purchased for over 1 million dollars. Twelve were by Redoute's Choice and nine by Encosta de Lago. Neither of these sires won any of our top prizemoney races over the past twelve months. Furthermore, none of the sires of our major staying races, featured in the top 25 yearling purchased at Easter. Houston we have a problem!!!

Adding further merit to my argument, Redoute's Choice hasn't sired a champion racehorse yet. His best horse has been Miss Finland, who won a Golden Slipper as a 2yo and dominated her own sex as a 3yo filly. However, as an older horse she failed to live up to the hype and was retired. Redoute's Choice has failed to produce a champion W.F.A horse and so far his progeny haven't really made their mark as older horses.

Encosta De Lago, has had Group 1 winners over staying distances with the likes of Princess Coup and Sirmione, whilst good horses, they aren't considered champions. Encosta De Lago's best horse to race in Australia, to date, has been 'Racing To Win' and even he wasn't able to dominate W.F.A racing during this years Sydney Autumn Carnival.

Ironically, the stallion with the greatest success in producing champions happens to be a sire of stayers - Zabeel. He has been champion sire Aust and NZ combined, on 12 occasions, yet he had 23 yearlings catalogued at Easter and none of them could make it to the elite million dollar mark when sold. Do buyers live in some sort of bazario parallel universe when they walk onto yearling sales complexes?

Zabeel has produced champion racehorses Might And Power, Octagonal, Vengeance Of Rain, amongst many other outstanding performers over all distances. As well, his progeny get better with age, which is something that owners should be searching for, considering that over 70% of our prize money is distributed towards staying races.

In summary, it is evident that despite the fact prize-money remains far greater for staying races both here in Australia and overseas, we remain fixated with breeding sprinters therefore unable to compete globally in the big-name races. It's sad times for the Australian breeding industry when the second tier Japanese horses can quinella the Melbourne Cup and one time hurdlers from England can win the Melbourne Cup. Lets not even think what would happen if these overseas raiders decide to bring the best W.F.A horses here for our carnivals. I guess it's almost a blessing we are so far away, making it unattractive for them to send their best horses.