Monday, December 29, 2008

Progressive Betting Schemes in Horse Racing Handicapping, Do They Really Work?

Progressive betting schemes have been around for a long time, not just in horse racing but in many forms of gambling. As far as I know, regular progressive betting schemes don't work, but there are some variations that can be profitable.

Let's talk about a popular progressive betting scheme that sometimes pays off, but in the long run is a loser. I mention this one first because it has been around a long time, but keeps getting used. This is simplicity itself. Bet on a minimum bet like $2 to win, and if you lose, increase your next bet enough to recoup your loss of $2 plus to make a profit on your next bet. So if you lose $2 and then bet on a wager that will return $4 for every $2 bet, then you must wager $4 in order to make a profit. A $4 wager will return $8 which will cover the original bet of 2 + the next bet of 4 ( a total of $6 wagered) and return a $2 profit.

Sounds simple and like a big hit, right? Wrong. If you don't win on the second bet, you then have to bet enough to cover both previous bets, plus your third bet, in order to recover your losses and then you have to bet a little more to make a profit. Because it is very long to go on a losing streak in any form of gambling, one long streak will usually wipe out your bankroll. That being said, there are still people out there trying to make this work.

Progressive betting is a bear and will devour your bankroll quicker than you can say, "Tapped out."

Parlay betting is a form of betting based on the idea of using the track's money to win big. The idea is that when you win a bet, you then wager all of it on your next bet. This is a bet not unlike the daily double in some respects and can lead to some nice scores. On drawback of this form of betting compared to the daily double is that both halves of your bet are subject to the track takeout and breakage, whereas with a daily double bet, you only pay breakage and the take on one bet.

The thing about gambling that we all learn sooner or later is that it is very "streaky." Winning and losing streaks occur. Capitalizing on a winning streak with parlay betting and limiting losses with base bets does make some sense, but when you lose everything you've just won on your next bet, it can get discouraging.

One of my favorite books about horse racing was written by Sam "the Genius" Lewin. In "How to Win at the Races: The Education of a Horseplayer," he explains how to spread your winnings around among your other bets for the day. For instance, let's say there are four horses that you plan on betting on. You go to the track with $80 and plan on betting $20 on each horse. If you win $120 on the first horse, divide that money three ways and place an equal amount to win on each of the next three. This is a good method of increasing your bets when you are winning and even if you lose the next bet or two, you're not tapped out for the day and you are making a bigger bet than you could have made with your original bankroll.

That is the only kind of progressive betting I would recommend. A variation would be to put a little of your winnings aside from the first bet and divide a smaller amount among your next bets. No matter how you look at it, betting on horses and money management always come down to the same thing, you need to be systematic and disciplined to make a profit.



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