A lot of people who bet on horse races are looking for what is called an underlay. An underlay is a horse that is under bet. In other words, there is less money bet on it than its real potential warrants. For instance, if the horse really has a 50% chance of winning, but will pay over $4 to win, it is an underlay and if you bet these types of horses you will make a profit. No wonder so much time and effort is put into finding these types of bets.
In order to find these bets you must be a very sharp individual and able to handicap better than the crowd, and that includes the insiders at the track, or you must have inside information that isn't apparent in the past performances. If you are an individual with these resources, then you don't need to read the rest of this article. It is written for people who don't get inside information and therefore have to slug it out against the odds.
Being a good bet shopper and finding ideal wagering situations where the odds are in your favor is a good goal, but you will soon find out that it is very difficult. A lot of the money in the pools at the race track, especially on a weekday, is money that was wagered by owners, trainers, jockeys, insiders. They know more about the horses than you do.
The obvious solution is to become an insider, or at least to bet like they do. How is that done? By watching the morning line odds and then seeing which horses are going off at less than their morning line odds, in other words, an overlay. If a horse is at 10-1 in the morning line, but going off at 3-1, obviously someone has bet it down. On a weekday, particularly at a smaller track where the pools are small, that probably means inside money. It also means there is something going on with that horse that the crowd can't detect using a racing form.
That's not to say all inside money is smart money, but the chances are that if you follow it long enough you will see definite patterns that show you when it is wise to bet on a horse, or at least not to bet against it by backing a horse that is running in the same race. Good toteboard watchers get to know an "honest board," when they see one and will not play a race where there is some suspicious action on a horse that just doesn't figure.
Watching the toteboard can reveal other secrets as well, based on the actual percentages between the pools, and the morning line is just one of several ways to spot a live horse.
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