How to Use the Class Drop to Pick Horse Racing Winners

One of the most misunderstood factors in horse racing handicapping is class. Ask a roomful of handicappers what class is and you will get a variety of answers. Some people will tell you it is the ability to run fast and speed and class are really the same thing. Other people contend that it is something inherent, yet intangible and hard to explain. They'll tell you it is an innate sense of confidence that a horse broadcasts to other horses.

While the classier a horse, the faster it usually runs, that is not always the case. For instance, if you look at the charts for a race track over the course of a week, you may find days when a cheaper claiming race had a faster win time than a classier race on the same day.

What is even more confusing is that horses with high speed ratings sometimes successfully move up in class while others, though their speed rating seem to justify running at a higher level, seem to fold up when confronted with "classier" horses. So how do you know if a class drop will really help a horse to win?

The difference may be in whether the horse actually was intimidated or simply didn't have the athletic ability to compete at that level. In my opinion, class is a combination of factors. It is heart and athletic ability combined. When I say heart, I mean spirit, or courage, or desire, in other words, the will to win.

So the first place to check for that will to win is in the past performances of the horse in question. If a horse is dropping in class, check its last few races and see if it tried to win. Did it flash any early speed? On the other hand, if it didn't make an early move, was it closing on the leader at the end of the race?

If it moved up in class in any of its recent races, did it show a marked difference in speed figures? In other words, was it intimidated and failed to perform up to its own ability? If you find that a horse did try, but just wasn't capable of competing at that level, it may very well succeed off the class drop, but if it was easily intimidated, then it may not try in the next race and may need several starts to regain its heart.



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